Genetics is the key to radical innovation in future health care. And we've seen this recently in new vaccine technology against COVID which will be used in future to prevent many other illnesses. Yet most of our genes are the same as in other animals. Indeed 8 mechanisms of ageing in all animals are almost the same.

Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist keynote speaker on the future of healthcare, and physician, takes a look at latest research into future of genetics, biotech, stem cells and other technologies that could dramatically improve life expectancy - and also provide new approaches to tackling illnesses like COVID.

Future of health care lessons from non-ageing animals. Impact on longevity / life expectancy.

Part of keynote for Boehringer Ingleheim and brief interview on future health care, ageing and future life expectancy. 

Tell us about the new edition of your book The Future of Almost Everything - in it is a chapter on life in 2120, how did you go about trying to forecast that far ahead? Most people would think it impossible.

It was an interesting process. When you are that far out, you are almost in the realms of science fiction, but remember that the greatest SciFi writers have often had extraordinary vision and correctly anticipated many things we take for granted today. I have been forecasting trends for over 30 years now, and the reason I'm still here, having worked with over 400 of the world's top 2000 companies, is because I've found that major trends tend to change in relatively predictable ways, while human nature is basically unchanged. And even technologies that change very rapidly are usually doing so in ways that are fairly obvious when you think about it. The broad direction of major global trends is usually very clear to experts in each industry or region, while we may debate about exact timing and likely impact....

In 1987 my medical practice as a cancer doctor, looking after people dying at home in London, was hijacked and overwhelmed by a new mutant virus which had jumped from animals into humans, killing every person infected.  That virus has since killed over 40 million people, and we still have no vaccine after 35 years of research, nor any cure.

And now, with COVID-19, the kind of new pandemic I have often warned of, it feels like history is repeating.

I responded to the global crisis back then, after seeing people with HIV die really badly, often rejected by health care workers as well as by family and friends. I launched a national and international agency called ACET (AIDS Care Education and Training).  

This Foundation began in our family home, and within two years had become a national and international movement - which today has prevention and care programmes all over the world, in many of the hardest hit, most marginalised and remote communities - nations like Uganda, Nigeria, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, India, Thailand, Belarus, Ukraine, Czeck Republic, Slovakia - as well as UK and Republic of Ireland.

These programmes have delivered health promotion / education globally with total attendance in High School classes alone exceeding 7 million, tens of thousands receiving care - in their homes, in clinics and so on.  Other programme are reaching pregnant women, saving the lives of their babies, educating commercial sex workers, and helping drug users to life healthier lives, and so on.

Here is a common sense view of what is likely to happen in the event that the EU and UK fail to achieve an agreement before the UK leaves the EU.  

1. The pound will fall further against the Euro

This will make all exports of goods and services even more affordable for other nations to buy, and will make imports even more expensive.  If the pound falls a further 10% post Brexit, then the total fall since the vote to leave will be 25%.

2. EU import taxes will be almost irrelevant to UK exports

Let us take an average tax of 5% on any UK goods imported into the EU from the UK, and the other way round.  How much impact would that actually have when you take the new exchange rate into account?

British goods will be net 20% cheaper for French or German people to buy than before.  That's huge by any measure.

French and German goods will be net 30% more expensive for British people to buy.  Even more significant.

Net impact: far greater on companies exporting to the UK.  In any case, the rest of the world takes more UK goods than the EU, and the EU is rapidly falling as an export destination.