Future of war in AI-driven world. Impact on Iran conflict, Ukraine. Why drones will continue to humble superpowers, as asymmetric threats. Impact on geopolitics. What this means for battlefield strategy, and ground troops. Future Defence Strategy Keynote

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What's next in the battles driven by exploding drones? As I predicted in 2 books, drones have given vast destructive powers to small groups with low budgets. Expect massive investment in anti-drone tech, particularly lasers like UK's DragonFire and the U.S. Helios. Until widely available, every "normal military campaign" will face huge added risks.

Swarms of small, AI-driven drones will always strike targets more easily than missiles can destroy them. Lasers can neutralize thousands of drones with a limited number of systems, costing only a few dollars per hit. However, such weapons will be expensive, require very high power, yet must be highly mobile to avoid being destroyed themselves.

To grasp the immense scale of the challenge, consider aerial displays in China, where 5,000 to 10,000 synchronized drones replace fireworks. Imagine 20,000 attack drones over a single area, each with an explosive charge, each independently controlled by AI-linked cameras, making their own targeting decisions - even when GPS and online contact is jammed. Such AI will be trained using 1 million hours of drone operator videos from Ukraine.

Currently, ground troops in places like Ukraine or Iran face the threat of being hunted down by multiple drone attacks. Even a faint difference in heat (infrared) can be enough at night to trigger an attack - from a single human being in a blanket hidden in a bush, or from a computer, or a small cooking stove.

Major fixed installations, such as oil refineries, pipelines, power stations and desalination units (water from sea), are even more at risk. Without major innovations such as laser weapons, drones will always get through, often launched from over 1000kms away. A single well-targeted drone can cause immense damage, taking weeks or months to repair. 

Long oil or gas pipelines across deserts will be a nightmare to protect. Only 1 in 200 drones need to reach such a target. And ships can only move at very slow speed, presenting immense profiles, often containing highly inflammable or explosive cargo.

Despite dominance of drones, military technology will eventually catch up, even as drone innovation continues to morph rapidly. In the meantime, traditional military strategies are obsolete.

From all the above you might think I am a great pessimist. Far from it.

There is another dimension to all this. As we saw during the COVID pandemic, and in the global economic crisis of 2011-2012, and in all of recent history, the truth is that despite media frenzies and apocalyptic warnings, our world continues to turn with much less dramatic long term effects on day to day lives of most ordinary people around the world than many might suppose.

It’s the truth. I’ve been predicting trends for 30 years now. But we should expect many disruptions.

For more insights, see my book "How AI Will Change Your Life," which includes entire chapters on war, surveillance, and cyberattacks, and also Keynotes on future conflict.

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