Future of Sales and Marketing beyond COVID - hybrid event in Vilnius: physical audience of 800 + 300 virtual. Digital marketing, location marketing. How to create MAGIC in new marketing campaigns. Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker

Chances of 2 people in 70 having same birthday? Managing Risk in Banking and Financial Services. Why the greatest risks are combinations of very unlikely events, which happen far more often than you expect. Keynote speaker on risk management

Compliance is Dead. How to build trust. Reputation of banks and financial services. Compliance Risks. Why 100% compliance with regulations, ESG requirements etc is often not enough to prevent reputational damage

Life's too short to do things you don't believe in! Why passionate belief in the true value of what you are selling or doing is the number one key to success. Secret of all leadership and marketing - keynote for 1100 people in Vilnius October 2021

Why you can't innovate on Zoom or Teams meetings - Innovation is almost impossible unless breathing same air, in same room

Why the key to rapid innovation is team diversity - survey global CEOs. Innovation keynote speaker

Future Manufacturing 5.0. Lessons from personal life for all manufacturers. Manufacturing Keynote

Future of Manufacturing: diagnostics; predictive analytics, little data and cybersecurity. Keynote

Manufacturing 5 0: The truth about robots, robotics and automation. Future of Manufacturing Keynote

Manufacturing 5.0 - why Manufacturing 4.0 not enough. Agility and Innovation: Manufacturing Keynote

Future of Manufacturing 5.0 - hyperconnected, sustainable factories and supply chains + human beings

80% of sales are won or lost in 3 seconds - Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker - Pardavimu formule

Future of GeoPolitics, Democracy, Government, Activism, Conflict and Hybrid Wars

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

Articles, videos and conference keynote presentations on future of geopolitics, government, democracy, local and regional governance, public sector workers, inward investment, single issue activism, conflicts, hybrid wars and related issues. Patrick Dixon is one of the world's best-known Futurist keynote speakers, has worked with hundreds of the world's largest companies, many governments and non-profits, and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today. Clients include hundreds of the world's largest multinationals, as well as World Bank, UNIDO, UNAIDS, European Commission, US Federal Government (Pentagon), Abu Dhabi Police Authority, UK Department of Trade and Industry, Irish government, South Korea Ministry of Knowledge and Economy, Jebel Ali Free Zone (UAE), Kazakhstan government, Lithuanian government, Portuguese government, State of Connecticut, Welsh Assembly, UK Parliament, London Connect. Patrick Dixon has given Futurist keynotes on issues related to public policy, to audiences in North America, Central America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Baltic States, Scandinavia, Africa, Central Asia, South East Asia and Asia Pacific.

 

Why future wars will be radically different: Hybrid Conflicts, Civil Chaos, Cyberattacks, Border Disputes. Impact on defence spending, Superpowers Military Strategy - keynote speaker - FEATURE

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

A few years ago, I gave a lecture to the Pentagon (USPACOM), on how to reduce risks of future wars and reduce international tensions. It was one of the toughest assignments I can remember.

Our world spends over $1.8 trillion every year on weapons and other defence costs, or 2.5% of global GDP, down from 4% in the last days of the Cold War, equivalent to $250 per person on earth. Combined sales of the largest 100 arms companies is around $320 billion a year - yet most of it is completely irrelevant to the conflicts of the future.

40% of all global military spending is by one nation alone: America, which burns up more in this way than the next 15 highest-spending nations combined. This is a truly spectacular imbalance of military fire-power, and will be unsustainable in the longer term as we will see.  America only needs to spend 3% of GDP on arms to achieve such dominance – compared to Russia which today spends 4% of a much smaller economy, China 2%, India 2%, UK 2%, France 2%, Israel 6%, Saudi Arabia 9% and Oman 12%.... But how do we ensure world peace?....

Read more: Why future wars will be radically different: Hybrid Conflicts, Civil Chaos, Cyberattacks, Border Disputes. Impact on defence spending, Superpowers Military Strategy - keynote speaker - FEATURE

   

Russia invasion of Ukraine - War. Russia's past is key to it's military future. War and Russian economy, Russian foreign policy and political aspirations, future relationship between Russia, China, EU, NATO and America - geopolitical risks keynote speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

3rd March 2022 - Longer term impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

While to some, President Putin's invasion of more of Ukraine in February / March 2022 came as a shock, for many years there have been growing tensions and military operations on various borders of Russia.

President Putin's leadership has grown steadily more autocratic and imperial in tone, and increasingly hostile regarding the perceived strength of EU / NATO influence on Russia's bordering nations.

At the start of most Futurist keynote presentations I have given on global trends over the last decade, I have said that "The world can change faster than you can hold a board meeting", and the need for alternative strategies / backup plans and leadership agility. 

This of course has been proven to be true over and over again - just think of COVID (and yes I warned repeatedly about threat from new viral pandemics). In my book The Future of Almost Everything, written in 2019, I listed Wild Cards - events that could have massive impact. One was the risk of a global viral pandemic, but another was a miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict (Russia implied but not named).

As I said those words about speed of change at the start of those keynotes, I have usually showed a series of slides including one of President Putin (making the point that a single decision / misjudgment by him could have immediate, huge impacts on a wide range of industries and sectors).

In my book The Future of Almost Everything, written in 2019, I listed Wild Cards - events that could have massive impact. One was the risk of a global viral pandemic, but another was a miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict (Russia implied but not named).

So Russia going to war into Ukraine should not be much of a surprise, taking yet more territory in another country, today Ukraine, but several other smaller neighbouring nations now more vulnerable to military attack.  

I have travelled extensively across the region, visiting both Russia and Ukraine many times, with many friends in both nations.

What is happening will be immensely distressing to many millions of people in Russia, who also have strong Ukrainian ties.  Here is a longer term perspective on what next.

The result of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine will be

- Huge immediate efforts by Ukraine allies to provide "hidden" military assistance by whatever means - eg weapons across whatever borders remain open (see Future of War article on hybrid conflicts)

- Rapid ramping up of military spending by all NATO nations, for longer term (which will feed further insecurities in President Putin and his senior leaders)

- Major challenges for Russia in imposing its will on the Ukrainian people who have a strong independent spirit (apart from coal mining regions to East which are strongly pro-Russian in culture)

- Issues of low morale amongst ordinary Russian soldiers, many of which have no interest in dying in Ukraine or in dominating it's people

- Constant leakage into global media of distressing video footage which is highly negative to Russia, taken on mobile phones and smuggled across borders even when entire phone networks and internet down - also reaching millions of Russian citizens despite government efforts to prevent this

- United efforts globally to damage the Russian economy and to take punitive action against political and business leaders

- Weakened Russian economy as result of all the above

- Further cycle of military investment by Russia - diverting resources from health, education, infrastructure etc

- Increased global carbon energy prices - which will also encourage investment in green energy, especially in Europe

- Political and social isolation / contempt of Russia on world stage

- A precedent that if successful may encourage military moves elsewhere eg China into Taiwan

And that's just the start.

Unfortunately, the Gulf War set a very dangerous precedent.

The aim to remove Sadam Hussain due to perceived threats of weapons of mass destruction, was an invasion with limited geopolitical justification.  The US and UK invaded another nation. 

Same with Afghanistan.  In both cases regime change was the immediate goal - sounds similar to Russian stated objectives in March 2022 re war on Ukraine.

NATO war games often have depressing outcomes

NATO generals play war games (as Russian generals do with each other) on a fairly constant basis, mapping out what responses would be possible in various scenarios.

But all such war games are at risk of Group Think - too many generals from one nation or alliance playing with each other for example, without wider input, can risk major errors of judgement.

The issue has always been, since the Cold War began, that huge numbers of Russian tanks pouring across a border to the West would be impossible to stop with traditional hardware, which is why NATO invested such large amounts in tactical nuclear devices.

But if NATO takes the position (or more dangerously Russia assumes this is the case anyway) that nuclear response will be ruled out, then President Putin / Russia can effectively invade whatever bordering nations it wishes, so long as willing to put up with the daily costs of imposing rule over angry, outraged populations.

Russia also has many more tactical nuclear weapons which are more useful in local battles.

Wider context of Russian invasion of Ukraine

President Putin's support for Belarus in quelling major unrest following re-election of it's own President, was part of wider long term Russia foreign policy across the region leading up to the 2022 Russian war with Ukraine.

Plus previous seizure of Crimeria, previously part of Ukraine, support for a sustained and bloody hybrid conflict in Eastern Ukraine, plus taking territory in Georgia and so on, plus clamping down on political opposition as well as independent news reporting agencies.

The fact is that President Putin's decision-making has posed a major geopolitical threat to the region for a long time now, and will continue to do so.

Sense of Perspective - Russia has small economy and Ukraine a large population 

However, to keep a sense of perspective, the entire Russian economy BEFORE SANCTIONS and the collapse of the Rouble, was similar in size to Spain or Italy.  And Ukraine itself has 40 million people (Russia 140 million).

Russia is also heavily dependent on oil and gas sales to other nations - 17% of global gas production and 12% of global oil output and is the largest net exporter of oil and gas combined.  Natural resources contribute around 60% to GDP. 

Can you imagine Spain going to war against France - the economic impact.  Or Greece invading Turkey?  Consider the tax increases required to fund huge armies, Air Force etc - the cost of firing a single cruise missile, of losing a single fighter jet.

Russia really is a tiny economy compared to the US or China.  Russia is not an economic superpower, yet has an identity and ambition for global greatness.  

Fighting wars in the third millennium is extremely expensive. You can use cruise missiles and artillery and conventional bombing to destroy infrastructure and terrorise entire populations, but actual occupation is another matter altogether.

Occupying another nation always ends in failure and humiliation

Occupation is a risky undertaking for any nation invading another - as it almost always creates resentment, outrage, hatred.  History shows us that all military occupations fail eventually.

How would Russia subdue and rule over 40 million people in Ukraine, the vast majority preferring to be independent of Russia?  

So if Russia does seize the entire territory, which it has the military power to do, remaining as a military presence will be a massive drain on resources.

And Ukraine is not a wealthy nation which can be asset stripped to fund such Russian imperialism.

Ordinary Russian people aspire to Western lifestyles, and Moscow is a cosmopolitan, lively and dynamic city.  A major downturn in economy will be hard to justify to the population if perceived to be the result of intemperate military adventurism. 

Gas addiction is the great weakness of Western Europe - expect change 

The great weakness of Western Europe continues to be its addiction to Russian gas.  Expect even faster migration towards low carbon economies with rapid expansion of gas trade with other nations such as the United States.

You can read below what I wrote about the longer term future of Russia in The Future of Almost Everything, published / updated in 2019.  A core message of the book, and of many other future-related books I have written, is this:

The world continues to turn through many a crisis - with our longer term future shaped by megatrends which are more powerful than decisions of government leaders or even global events such as viral pandemics.  

Just one such megatrend is the relentless, year on year rise of emerging markets in economic strength and influence.  Another is the relentless, year on year rise in concerns about future sustainability of our planet.  

Read more: Russia invasion of Ukraine - War. Russia's past is key to it's military future. War and Russian economy, Russian foreign policy and political aspirations, future relationship between Russia, China, EU, NATO and America - geopolitical risks keynote speaker

   

What will be President Trump's longer term impact on America, global politics, news reporting, future of democracy itself. Why he fits many predictions I made and what is likely to happen next to political leadership globally. FEATURE

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

President Trump is very typical of a new generation of "single-issues politicians", rising up around the world as I predicted years ago (article written September 2018)

He thrives on the elusive powers of 24 hours a day media-streaming of his thoughts and feelings, taps into populist emotions, connects with the passions of ordinary people, expresses very well their fears for their own future, as well as their dreams for their own children.

A part of this has been the powerful slogan: "Make America Great Again", which feeds into deep unease about the declining role, influence and economic powers of America as a proportion of the whole world.  This in turn is being driven by the very long term, irresistible and relentless rise in emerging nations, where 85% of humanity already live.

Leaving aside whatever you may feel about President Trump's official, longer term policies, the truth is that his day to day communications and actions are massively different from what is normally expected in developed nations of their own Presidents or Prime Ministers, and are much more typical in some ways of patterns that we tend to see amongst semi-dictators in emerging markets....

Read more: What will be President Trump's longer term impact on America, global politics, news reporting, future of democracy itself. Why he fits many predictions I made and what is likely to happen next to political leadership globally. FEATURE

   

Why Trump Won - how tribalism will dominate the future of democracy: and why President Trump will struggle to deliver

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

Reasons for the US election victory of Donald Trump will be debated for decades. Here are major long-term factors at work across America and in every other democratic nation, which I described in The Future of Almost Everything - my latest book, see below, (with additions in italics today).  These set the backdrop for dramatic events over the last few hours (9 November 2016), and also influenced the Brexit vote.  Read on for"  What happens when faith in ideologies and parties dies; why tribalism is the most powerful force in the world today; why President Trump will struggle to deliver.

Read more: Why Trump Won - how tribalism will dominate the future of democracy: and why President Trump will struggle to deliver

   

Here Comes Radical Change: Future of Public Services, Demographics -- Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

Patrick Dixon -- conference keynote speaker -- impact of demographics, birth rates, youth, urban migration and immigration, life expectancy forecasts. All impact demand for public services, health care budgets, community services, demand for education...

Read more: Here Comes Radical Change: Future of Public Services, Demographics -- Keynote Speaker

   

Social networks impact on democracy, dictatorships and freedom of information

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

democracy and democratic pressures from social networks. Cover ups and government deceptions, impact of wikileaks on government internal communications and policies. Freedom of information and corruption. Politics and political change. Impact of SMS, twitter, Linkedin, Facebook, Youtube and other social networks on dictatorships v democracy. How dictators fear loss of political power from freedom of information. Use of mobile technology, smart phones and other communication devices to drive protests and public disorder. How governments and dictatorships have switched off mobile telephones and SMS, web ...

Read more: Social networks impact on democracy, dictatorships and freedom of information

   

Future of Conflicts

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

Preventing Future Conflicts - with special reference to Asia Pacific. Keynote address for 500 US military (US Pentagon Pacific Command senior leadership) and guests.

Read more: Future of Conflicts

   

Radical Activists: How aggressive passion in tiny numbers of people will change our world and impact of terrorism.

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

Radical political forces, activism, terrorism and single issues. Carbon trading? Global warming? Environment? Discrimination and social justice?

Democracy what kind of system is best? Are other systems of government more appropriate in some emerging economies? Different systems of democracy.

How democracy could work for a global government based loosely around the UN United Nations. Should the majority global population have power to alter how the global village is run ...

Read more: Radical Activists: How aggressive passion in tiny numbers of people will change our world and impact of terrorism.

   

Dictatorships and Revolution in Digital Age: People Power after Tunisia, Egypt, Libya

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

What next after Tunisia, Libya, Egypt? Impact of SMS, twitter, Linkedin, Facebook, Youtube and other social networks on dictatorships v democracy in Middle East and across the world. How Africa, Arab and Asia dictators fear loss of political power from freedom of information.

Use of mobile technology, smart phones and other communication devices to drive protests and public disorder. How governments and dictatorships have switched off mobile telephones and SMS, web access etc to maintain political control. How power is shifting from government leaders, ...

Read more: Dictatorships and Revolution in Digital Age: People Power after Tunisia, Egypt, Libya

   

Democracy: is democracy always best form of government?

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

Democratic models of government may not always be best. Risks from trying to impose a Western developed nation model on rest of world. Need to respect different political traditions, forms of government and cultural differences. Seeking to impose democratic system can be seen as form of cultural imperialism.

Where the majority of the country favour a particular radical direction, democratic elections may result in governments and policies that are more extreme than the dictators that were replaced.

Read more: Democracy: is democracy always best form of government?

   

UK ELECTION: Future Politics / Democracy. Crisis Trust.

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

Future of democracy, politics, political parties and lobbying in a world which no longer trusts politicians and cannot be bothered (often) to vote.

Crisis of confidence in Westminster, UK mother of all democratic Parliaments, also in America, Greece, Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Ukraine and other nations.

Expenses scandal and challenges also in European Commission. Bribery and corruption in political life. Future of politics and political parties.

Comment by Dr Patrick Dixon author of The Truth about Westminster, and conference keynote speaker. ...

Read more: UK ELECTION: Future Politics / Democracy. Crisis Trust.

   

Truth about Westminster: UK political scandal over MP expenses

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

Comment by Patrick Dixon, author of The Truth about Westminster on MP expense scandal and revelations about alleged corruption among MPs, wrong claims in House of Commons.

Future of Westminster and UK democracy.

Public opinion of members of parliament.

Read more: Truth about Westminster: UK political scandal over MP expenses

   

Future of Government, Activism and Politics

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

Future of Government and Politics - articles / videos and keynote conference presentations on regional and national government, resolving conflicts between and inside nations, future democracy, activist movements and terrorism.  - For more see links on this page


   

War on Terrorism - comment on the terrible events on 9/11

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

11 September attack pictures of terrorismLiving with Fear and Uncertainty in a Changing World of Terrorism

Violent tribalism and terrorism will be fed by globalization and injustice

Most terrorism attacks on America will be against corporations and citizens

In less than half an hour our world was changed.

True Impact of World Trade Centre Pictures

Read more: War on Terrorism - comment on the terrible events on 9/11

   

The Truth about the War with Iraq

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

We can debate the morality and chaotic aftermath of the 2003 Iraq War, and miss the bigger picture, which is far wider than the post 9/11 war against terror, or the current crisis among Palestinians and Israelis, or the situation in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, or the convulsions in the UN and the EU, or US global dominance and accusations of aggressive imperialism.

Article Written May 2003.

Read more: The Truth about the War with Iraq

   

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