TRUTH about US trade War - what next? Why markets and voters more powerful than any US President. How chaos will resolve and likely end result. Patrick Dixon is global keynote speaker on economy and geopolitics

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TRUTH about the US Trade War - what next?? 

As I pointed out hours before President Trump announced "Liberation Day" Trade Tariffs, the TRUTH is market forces / public mood are FAR more powerful than US Presidents. 

Here are 8 FACTS: (as of 15th April 2025)

Within a week: 

1. Stocks collapsed

2. Corporate investments cancelled

3. Investors demanded higher interest on money lent to US government

4. Tarrifs largely suspended - at least 90 days

5. Trust lost in reliability of US trade policy

6. Status of US weakened

7. US opinion polls show voters becoming worried

8. Frenzy of diplomacy / trade delegations from other governments to White House.

Here is what to EXPECT over next 8 weeks

EXPECT: over next 2 months >100 nations will offer the White House "better trade terms" and a wide range of other concessions - economic and political. 

Most will be accepted in exchange for lighter Tarrifs. 

Expect a big White House announcement - effectively "Liberation Day II" - before October, claiming trillions of dollars of additional US exports will now flow largely tariff free over the next decade, that most of 2nd April tariffs have been massively reduced or cancelled, and that White House policy of "America First" has "won yet again".

Need to PREPARE - manage and mitigate risks

However, there is major risk of further chaos caused by multiple conflicting government announcements.

These could easily erode trust further, reducing investment, scaring markets.At the end of the day common sense will prevail, driven by opinion polls as well as markets.

US elections close than many realise

Mid-term US elections now less than 2 years away so time rapidly running out to fix all this. Presidential Elections in full swing in less than 3 years.

How to survive and thrive in these chaotic times

Companies with strong balance sheets, plenty of ready cash, and agile leadership will seize huge opportunities in these chaotic times, as competitors weaken / fail / collapse.

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