Unsustainable population growth

One billion children will become consumers in the next 15 years – the biggest jump in human history.

Today in Africa 350 million children see glimpses of your lifestyle and compare this to their own, surviving on less than $3 a day. Most of them will spend their entire adult lives living in cities, chasing dreams of wealth.

By 2025, most people on the planet will be in Asia.

85% of the world’s population will be living in emerging markets or today’s developing countries by then, mostly in cities.

Only 1 in 7 will be in today’s developed nations, driving less than 10% of the world’s economic growth.

China is a wealthy ‘nation of nations’ with a huge middle class, gigantic manufacturing capacity, its own dotcom boom, the world’s largest high-speed rail network, and one of the best educated workforces in the world. China is evolving rapidly and for many globalised corporations manufacturing in China is becoming a rather old-fashioned idea, because of rising costs.

China is now the world’s largest economy according to the World Bank, on the measure of purchasing power parity (PPP), which looks at what the local currency will actually buy, after adjusting for international exchange rates.  China’s economy will be three times the size of India’s in 2025, as it is today, but we can expect that India will close that gap in the longer term.

On an absolute dollar basis, China will be the world’s largest economy by 2024, propelled by a threefold rise in consumer spending each year from $3.5 trillion in 2014 to $10.5 trillion by 2024. This will all be part of a transition from an export-led, manufacturing economy to a more balanced economy serving Chinese consumers.

* Patrick Dixon has advised many of the world's largest insurance companies on global trends, opportunities, customer behaviour, fund management strategies and risk management. He has given Futurist keynotes at many of their largest corporate events, covering many global trends and their impact on the insurance industry.

Insurance is as fundamental to a stable and prosperous society as banking, hospitals and schools. Yet more than 3 billion people have never heard of insurance, do not know how it works, and have no idea how to get hold of it.  Most insurance today is sold to a mere 1% of the global population who own 50% of all the wealth.

Expect rapid growth, therefore, of basic insurance in emerging markets where 85% of humanity lives, targeted mainly at the emerging middle class. Health insurance will lead the way, after insurance types that people are forced by law to buy, such as motor insurance. Expect a boost in many nations in sales of life or health products from tax rebates, especially where they are structured to contain an element of saving. Many who are unbanked today will gain their first insurance cover using a smartphone, or through micro-loans associations.  Extract from The Future of Almost Everything....

Blockchain means that anyone in the world with online access can prove a particular document exists, when it was sent, who it was sent to and so on.  We can also prove that an event has taken place, in a way which is fully transparent to everyone who needs to know this around the world. The implications of this are going to be huge.  And it will be many years before we work it all out.