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THE TRUTH ABOUT FUTURE MASS MIGRATION - a people movement with greater force than any military superpower. As I predicted in "Futurewise" (1998-2005), large scale migration is now unstoppable, able to break governments, yet many nations NEED migration

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THE TRUTH ABOUT FUTURE MASS MIGRATION - a people movement with greater force than any military superpower. 

As I predicted in "Futurewise" (1998-2005), large scale migration is now an unstoppable, global force, powerful enough to break governments and fuel extremists, likely to lead to civil unrest and chaos in some nations.

Yet migration will also be a vital part of the longer term future of many developed nations, bringing many much needed skills and other resources, as well as enriching culture and encouraging innovation.

Indeed, many developed nations will experience national decline without significant migration - for reasons below.

1 billion on the move

1 billion will move from fields to cities in the next 30 years, of which 100m will cross at least one border legally or illegally, fleeing conflicts and severe poverty.

The truth is that at least 50 million people today are willing to risk death to find a better life for themselves and those they love.

They feel they have nothing to loose and are driven by a powerful vision of a better future.

The causes of such intense despair and desperation are complex but very important to understand.

1% of the population owns 50% of global wealth

And the other 99% see this every day on advertising hoardings, TV screens and mobile phones.

Never in human history have such wealth contrasts been so great and obvious without revolution following.

Most people have very limited access to health care, while 1 billion are regularly hungry or short of water.

Whatever your views on climate change, tens of millions are drifting from lands that can no longer be farmed reliably because of regular severe drought or flooding. 

70 million refugees across the world

There are also 70 million refugees in the world today, many of whom have witnessed violent deaths of family, many persecuted for their faith, ethnicity, or language they speak. Vast numbers of families on the move, often with traumatised young children.

At the same time, there is often a free ride to be had on the back of a lorry, towards the next town or city, across Africa or Asia, or Latin America, or Central and Eastern Europe.

Typically younger men move first, sending money home. Remittances are a major source of income for many nations.

Most national borders are easy to cross

Most borders are poorly patrolled (fields or forests can be walked across) while strictly policed can still be crossed. For example, by flying on holiday visas and disappearing into homes of friends. migration.  

Many ageing nations will need to boost populations with migration

Many ageing nations like Germany, Italy, Poland, Japan, China and Russia will boost populations, in some cases by 10-15% in 30 years, absorbing young workers from poor nations (whether arrived legally or not).

Providing workers, driving growth and tax revenues - on which future health and social care will depend.

What is the answer to reducing mass migration?

The longer term solution is to invest in economic development of the poorest nations. Global levelling up is one of the most profound moral challenges of our day alongside caring for our planet.

Economic development will be more rapid in poorest nations

The good news is that economic development lifts more people out of poverty every year than the combined philanthropy of the entire developed world.

Economic growth in emerging nations will outstrip developed nations by average 1.5% each year for the next 30 years or more.

This too will be an unstoppable force. Those with stable and effective government will see the most rapid growth of all.


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