Future of Rail: trends in rail passengers, rail freight, railway innovation - Rail Trends Keynote

Future of the Auto Industry - mega trends impacting the auto industry. Futurist Keynote for Belron

How to make virtual keynotes more real and engaging - how I appeared as an "avatar" on stage when I broke my ankle and could not fly to give opening keynote on innovation in aviation for. ZAL event in Hamburg

"I'm doing a new book" - 60 seconds to make you smile. Most people care about making a difference, achieving great things, in a great team but are not interested in growth targets. Over 270,000 views of full leadership keynote for over 4000 executives

Futurist Keynote Speakers - how Futurist Keynotes transform events, change thinking, enlarge vision, sharpen strategic thinking, identify opportunities and risks. Patrick Dixon is one of the world's best known Futurist Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Colonies on Mars, space travel and how digital will help us live decades longer - comment before keynote for 1400 at Avnet Silica event

Future of Travel and Tourism after COVID. Boom for live experiences. What this means for future of aviation, airlines, hotels, restaurants, concerts halls, trends in leisure events, theme parks. Travel Industry Keynote Speaker

Quiet Quitters: 50% US workforce wish they were working elsewhere. How engage Quiet Quitters and transform to highly engaged team members. How to tackle the Great Resignation. Human Resources Keynote Speaker

The Great Resignation. 50% of US workers are Quiet Quitters. They have left in their hearts, don't believe any longer in your strategy. 40% want to leave in 12 months. Connect with PURPOSE to win Quiet Quitters. Human Resources Keynote Speaker

Future of Human Resources, virtual working, hybrid teams, motivation, management, future of motivation and career development. How to develop high performance teams. HR Keynote Speaker

Speed of change often slower than people expect! I have successfully forecast major trends for global companies for over 25 years. Focus on factors driving long term changes, with agile strategies for inevitable disruptive events. Futurist Keynote Speaker

Agile leadership for Better Risk Management. Inflation spike in 2022-3 - what next? Expect more disruptive events, while megatrends will continue relentlessly to shape longer term future globally in relatively predictable ways. Futurist Keynote Speaker

Crazy customers! Changing customer expectations. Why many decisions are irrational. Amusing stories. Lessons for Leadership, Management and Marketing - Futurist Keynote Speaker VIDEO

TRUST is the most important thing you sell - TRUE for every business. How to BUILD TRUST, win market share, retain contracts, gain new customers. Future of logistics and supply chain management - Futurist Keynote Speaker

Future of Sales and Marketing beyond COVID - hybrid event in Vilnius: physical audience of 800 + 300 virtual. Digital marketing, location marketing. How to create MAGIC in new marketing campaigns. Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker

Chances of 2 people in 70 having same birthday? Managing Risk in Banking and Financial Services. Why the greatest risks are combinations of very unlikely events, which happen far more often than you expect. Keynote speaker on risk management

Compliance is Dead. How to build trust. Reputation of banks and financial services. Compliance Risks. Why 100% compliance with regulations, ESG requirements etc is often not enough to prevent reputational damage

Life's too short to do things you don't believe in! Why passionate belief in the true value of what you are selling or doing is the number one key to success. Secret of all leadership and marketing - keynote for 1100 people in Vilnius October 2021

Future Manufacturing 5.0. Lessons from personal life for all manufacturers - why most manufacturing lags 10-15 years behind client expectations in their day to day life. Manufacturing 4.0 --> Manufacturing 5.0. Future of Manufacturing Keynote

80% of sales are won or lost in 3 seconds, How to grow your business by giving attention to small things that really matter. Future of Marketing, Futuris Keynote Speaker - Pardavimu formule in Vilnius

Why migration to cities is so vital to China - economic growth. Future of China, demographic trends in Asia. Impact on regional economic growth. Long term outlook for China economy. Futurist Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Emerging Markets - Keynote Speaker

China urbanisation rural to city migration compared to US

The Chinese government is planning for up to 300 million people to move to cities in the next decade.  This huge migration will place immense strain on infrastructure and housing, as well as on job creation.  These people are moving for a better life, in hope of higher incomes and opportunity.  The risk is social unrest if economic development fails to keep pace with expectations.

The question is how long will it take for the urbanization process to be complete?  Take Brazil, which has a population of 200 million, yet 85% already live in cities.  We are no longer seeing a million new people a year drift into slum dwellings from rural areas.

But China is different.  It is interesting to compare China with the process of urbanization in America from 1840 to today.  As we can see in the graph above, China clearly has a long way to go and on current trends will take until around 2040 to reach the same degree of city living as America had in 2010.

While the process may be accelerated, it may not be in China’s interests to go much faster.  There is a limit to the speed of safe development.

As it is, by 2012, many skylines in China were marked by tall silent cranes, hanging over half-completed massive developments.  Too many real estate investments, racing ahead of demand.  Developers running out of cash, rural migrants failing to arrive, or to arrive with enough wealth to rent or buy what they were offered.  Of course, this will be temporary: the relentless movement of people to cities, and creation of wealth, will catch up.

China really does need urbanization because of the one-child policy (despite some relaxation) which means an acute shortage of young workers in industrialised cities.  China’s economic growth depends on bringing wave after wave of new people into cities.

Falling workforce <a href='/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4863' class='linki'>population</a> in China

China has recently reached a critical point where young people entering the workforce no longer balances people retiring, so that the labour force is shrinking.

The reality is more complex since the graph makes no allowance for the fact that people are living longer and may work for another 5-10 years compared to what they have done in the past, so it is hard to be sure what the actual net impact will be.

* What do YOU think about the future of China?  Do make comments below - I reply to each one.


Related news items:
Newer news items:
Older news items:


Thanks for promoting with Facebook LIKE or Tweet. Really interested to read your views. Post below.

Join the Debate! What are your own views?


?

 

Search for your future



Our cookie policy

We use cookies for statistical purposes. To comply with the e-Privacy Directive we need to ask your consent to place these cookies on your computer.

Your use of this site indicates acceptance of these terms. I accept