Making sense of global trade CHAOS: MEGATRENDS will dominate future. More powerful in medium term than global trade barriers / chaos triggered by President Trump's "Liberation Day".  More powerful than any President. Making sense of global trade CHAOS: MEGATRENDS will dominate future. 

(From my keynote at LogisticsWorld in Mexico). More powerful in medium term than global trade barriers / chaos triggered by President Trump's "Liberation Day". 

More powerful than any President. 

Countries with young populations have long term growth advantages

Exampe: Mexico like many emerging markets (except China) has young, well-educated, energetic and vibrant population which will drive economic growth for three decades. 

Compare Mexico with US, Italy, Japan - all of which have "missing generations" and face massive challenges looking after ageing populations. 

Same "missing generation" issue will hit China big-time compared to India, already 6th largest nation in population, again much younger population.

Market forces greater than any President or government

Here is another Megatrend: $140 trillion in shares are sold every year, while 92% of all currency trading is carried out by robots / AI taking decisions in nanoseconds, triggered by single White House Tweets or other signals. 

Market forces are more powerful than any government. 

And the combined wealth of the world's 3000 billionaires is greater than the GDP of every nation of the world except US or China. 

Whatever US President might say today, the greatest issue for corporations is what ACTUALLY happens tomorrow, and whether that will change the following year.

Countries with young populations have long term growth advantages

Exampe: Mexico like many emerging markets (except China) has young, well-educated, energetic and vibrant population which will drive economic growth for three decades. Compare Mexico with US, Italy, Japan - all of which have "missing generations" and face massive challenges looking after ageing populations. Same "missing generation" issue will hit China big-time compared to India, already 6th largest nation in population, again much younger population.

Market forces greater than any President or government

Here is another Megatrend: $140 trillion in shares are sold every year, while 92% of all currency trading is carried out by robots / AI taking decisions in nanoseconds, triggered by single White House Tweets or other signals. Market forces are more powerful than any government. And the combined wealth of the world's 3000 billionaires is greater than the GDP of every nation of the world except US or China. Whatever US President might say today, the greatest issue for corporations is what ACTUALLY happens tomorrow, and whether that will change the following year.

2 April 2025. US Tarrifs and Trade War: 4 hours after my opening keynote today at massive LogisticsWorld event in Mexico, President Trump confirmed 25% import tariffs on many goods "until Fentanyl illegal drug trafficking emergency sorted out". But the charts I showed today: Fentanyl, Cocaine and Heroin seizures are already massively down, as is illegal cross-border migration. 

These and other factors tell us that the 25% tariff for Mexico exports to US will likely end up being far lower after negotiations conclude. Same is likely in many other nations, especially Canada which has hardly any Fentanyl cross-border traffic - attention-grabbing tariffs will be followed by lower profile downward adjustments. We need to understand wider picture. US Presidents have limited legal powers to impose major taxes or tarrifs except in times of "national emergency". By declaring Fentanyl smuggling as a national emergency, President Trump has found a legal work-around for some of the steps announced today.

However other factors are at work - global market pressures will force the US to resolve most major tariff disputes over the next 6-12 months.  Current chaos will mean corporations cannot make medium to long term decisions about investment and will continue to wipe out stock market valuations, pension assets and personal investments.  And tarrifs are in truth a tax on consumption - impacting the price that people buy imported goods - so directly increase prices in the short term.  Opinion polls will really matter in 12 months time. Mid term US elections are barely 18 months away and President Trump will be facing his own re-election in just over 3.5 years.

Comment on "global chaos' - March 2025 

As a Futurist who has worked with over 400 of the world's largest corporations, as well as advising many governments, I have successfully forecast a huge range of global trends over the last 30 years.

Described in many of my 18 books including Futurewise, The Future of Almost Everything, SustainAgility and most recently How AI Will Change Your Life. See also this website.

Our world is undergoing a major convulsion created by geopolitical threats, autocratic leaders and massive tehno-changes such as AI. What does this mean for the future?

Here are my key messages for leaders of companies and governments.  You may be the largest bank in the world, an AI giant or on oil company - the same factors apply.

Reality Check - Megatrends will continue to drive global growth

It's vital to keep a sense of perspective in times of chaos – to keep focussed on the larger picture.

Our planet continues to turn, day in, day out - and lives of almost all ordinary people continue to change relatively slowly.

Despite the frenzy of media news-feeds, the TRUTH is that our world will continue to be driven by macro-forces which are far more powerful than any government.

Examples include:

• Innovation and techno-revolutions such as AI
• Demographic changes – population growth, better health and ageing
• Wealth contrasts across regions – driving mass migrations 
• Rapid growth in power and influence of emerging markets
• Global race towards a more ‘sustainable’ future

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