20 March 2024 comment on post below: We are now only one step from NATO formally declaring war against Russia. That step would be a military action by Russia against a NATO member. But how likely is this?
Our world is facing the greatest geopolitical risks we have seen for over 40 years, with an ongoing war in Eastern Europe, conflict in the Middle East and major tensions over the future of Taiwan.
The Second World War showed us how a war in one region can make other conflicts more likely, because different nations start seeing opportunities of their own in the midst of regional and global chaos.
History shows that the ability of dictators to start new wars is directly related to the political power they have. And President Putin's power base in Russia is now stronger than before the invasion of Ukraine, while his ambition continues to grow to expand the territory that Russia controls.
The more powerful a dictator becomes, by definition, the quieter the voices of dissent around them, the more feeble the challenges to any unrealistic ambitions. Powerful dictators risk loosing their grip on practical realities (eg actual military strength) because those around them are often too afraid to tell them the truth. P
Europe / NATO is therefore at great risk of a further miscalculation / gamble by President Putin, emboldened by a distorted view of the wider world, by lack of internal threats to his power, by mobilisation of his nation to a wartime economy, and by what he believes is fading support for Ukraine in the US.
Set against this is the fact that Russian military strength has been weakened in the last two years.
In comparison, NATO / Western Europe can hardly find enough ammunition to supply half of Ukraine's front-line needs, has been very slow to ramp up defence spending, has a poorly defined nuclear weapons strategy, and is in no fit state to go to war against Russia.
A single new military action by President Putin could be enough to trigger war with NATO, with potential for vast destruction across Western, Eastern and Central Europe - even assuming that no nuclear weapons are fired.
The most effective way to reduce this risk is for Europe / NATO to rapidly mobilise for outright war, as a preventative measure, but this is currently happening at a very slow pace.
Manufacturing of new weaponry is painfully slow, and EU nations have hardly woken up to the wartime realities which will mean diverting major spending from other important areas such as health care, and increasing government debt.
Expect EU / NATO to accelerate military spending, with many nations budgeting 2% of GDP, some like Poland far more, by 2027, partly because of pressures from the US to honour NATO-related pledges.
Expect many corporations to continue to shorten supply chains to minimise risk, sourcing within regions rather than across the world.
11 July 2022 note on post below: History shows that small conflicts often trigger wider ones which is what is happening. Hundreds of companies cancelled Russian business contracts or exited operations altogether from Russia within days and weeks of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but wider factors remain far more important from the global point of view.
On the one hand, the Russian economy was in any case smaller than Spain before the invasion, and will continue to shrink rapidly during the rest of 2022 and into 2023. Yet on the other hand, it has a huge old-fashioned military able to create First World War type regional destruction on a massive scale - without using nuclear devices. Sadly it can cost a mere $100,000 to blow up a 1000 year old building, but $500m to rebuild and restore (and nothing can replace the original history).
So Russia is not an economic superpower able to sustain a massive war for a long period without financial catastrophe. Nor does Russia have the economic, military or organisational power to subdue and control 40 million angry and bitter Ukrainians....
Read more: Risk of Russia war with NATO. Russia's past is key to it's military future. War and Russian economy, Russian foreign policy and political aspirations, future relationship between Russia, China, EU, NATO and America - geopolitical risks keynote speaker
Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos -
Future of Work, Workplace, HR, WFH - Keynotes
Future of Work and Impact on Business. How will people want to work after COVID? Most of my global clients need to know the Future of Work and how their teams will operate in future. What will happen to future career choices, commuting, team meetings, office occupancy?
Will home working continue, or will too much virtual working destroy the future of the business? What trends will we see in future business travel? Will large offices become redundant?
I've been predicting global trends for 30 years - and here's a few forecasts for future of work over the next decade...(and yes I also warned repeatedly in books, keynotes at conferences and in media broadcasts about global risks from new pandemics like COVID).
* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on workplace, jobs, employment, offices, team management, change management and career opportunities.
Read more: Future of Work - keynote speaker on workplace changes after COVID, new career aspirations, changes in workplace motivation, home working, virtual teams, portfolio workers, future of offices and flexible workplaces
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Future Health Care and Pharma Keynote Speaker
What is the truth about Omicron? What does Omicron mean for our world?
For over two decades before COVID-19 hit the world I warned of risks from new viral pandemics.
And since COVID-19 emerged, I warned repeatedly that we should continue to expect significant new variants to emerge, at a rate of maybe around one significant variant per 100 million new infections. So Omicron is no surprise.
And many of my COVID forecasts have turned out to be correct - see elsewhere on this site. Firstly, we need to see Omicron as part of a wider picture....
(Article written 1st December 2021 - World AIDS Day. AIDS is caused by HIV, just another virus that jumped unexpectedly from animals to humans, but in the case of HIV, we still have no vaccine after 35 years of trying to develop one, nor any curative treatments. My own medical practice was overwhelmed by HIV / AIDS in 1987 which is why I have been so sensitised to risks of more pandemics.)
* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on future health care.
Read more: The truth about Omicron and other COVID-19 variants. 10 key omicron issues. Why we must expect further viral pandemics (and many more variants of COVID-19). So what's the answer? Life Beyond COVID-19
Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos -
Future Marketing Keynotes, Mobile,Digital Consumer
Neuromarketing and AI - keynote for 800 people in Vilnius, Lithuania for Pardavimu FormulaeNeuromarketing is a controversial area of market research that uses neuropsychology to study consumers' sensorimotor, cognitive, affective and emotional responses to marketing stimuli. There are various methods of watching the brain "think" or process stimuli, and all these are being used in hospitals to diagnose various conditions. Combined with AI / Artificial Intelligence, neuromarketing takes digital marketing tools to a whole new level.
Neuromarketing techniques include tracking eye movements, EEG (cap on head), watching for changes in facial expressions, functional MRI brain scans (watch areas light up as different parts of the brain are more or less excited), watching pupil size.
* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on marketing including neuromarketing.
Read more: What is neuromarketing? Why companies are using neuromarketing and AI / Artificial Intelligence to design products, packaging and marketing campaigns. How neuromarketing works. Examples of neuromarketing. Neuromarketing keynote speaker
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Manufacturing, Logistics, Supply Chain Keynotes
Get ready for Net Zero Manufacturing 5.0 which will run faster and stronger than Manufacturing 4.0 ever did. Expect 100,000 manufacturing innovations to reduce energy consumption, reduce embodied carbon in manufacturers products, and drive sales by proving better environmental standards.
These changes in manufacturing will happen much faster than government regulations, just like we saw in other sectors such as food safety, food labelling, animal welfare in farming and food traceability. Expect massive pressures up and down supply chains from larger manufacturers who will be required to report on the carbon emissions per product manufactured.
Extract from future of manufacturing 5.0 keynote for New Mexico Advanced Manufacturing Summit.
* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on manufacturing 4.0 and manufacturing 5.0, as well as AI impact on sustainability.
Read more: Carbon Zero Manufacturing: how global companies will race ahead of governments to deliver net zero carbon products for a world beyond COVID. Factory strategies for Net Zero Emissions. Future of Manufacturing Keynote Speaker
Dr Patrick Dixon, YouTube Futurist Keynote Speaker -
Recent Futurist YouTube Videos - Keynote Speaker
3rd November 2021, Lisbon Portugal.
Issues to be covered in the keynote: sustainability, transformation of business using digital technology. How technology will help find solutions to the climate emergency.
Patrick Dixon is a Futurist Keynote Speaker.
* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on leadership, management, marketing, sustaiability and building trust with customers.
Read more: Join me: Accenture SustainABILITY event, Lisbon, Portugal. Keynote on Sustainability and Technology. Futurist keynote speaker
Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos -
Future GreenTech, Sustainability Keynote Speaker
Over 1.7 million views of my Climate Emergency Webinar and Q+A - based on my book SustainAgilityCOP26 and beyond - Expect global responses to the climate emergency on a wartime basis - far beyond scale of any normal government measures. What we have seen so far is NOTHING compared to what is to come. Expect far greater concerns over the next 30 years about sustainability and what kind of planet will remain in 100 years, with shortages of water, food and other resources and major threats to other forms of life.
(Written 4 April 2021 - based on many corporate keynotes given at major events on sustainability, energy use and decarbonisation.)
* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on the environment, green tech innovation and sustainability.
Over 1.7 million views of my Climate Emergency Webinar - based on my book SustainAgility
Read more: COP26 and beyond: Climate Emergency will trigger action on wartime scale: Sustainability / ESG will dominate politics for 300 years. Green tech will radically transform life on earth, but not in time to prevent global crises / environmental catastrophes
Dr Patrick Dixon, YouTube Futurist Keynote Speaker -
Recent Futurist YouTube Videos - Keynote Speaker
Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker - Patrick Dixon - speaking in Vilnius, Lithuania at Confinn. See https://www.confinn.eu.
What will be the future of marketing?
What are future marketing trends for 2030?
What will advertising look like in 2025?
What will be the future of digital marketing in 2035?
The future of marketing is about INFORMATION and REVELATION.
Why most marketing directors hate marketing - being on the receiving end. Why market research cannot tell you the future and why many companies are blind to what their customers really want and need.
Keys to successful personalised marketing and location-based marketing, with industry examples in retail of marketing campaigns that really worked well. How COVID has changed retail customer expectations and behaviour.
* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's new book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books, and contains a chapter on the impact of AI on marketing, advertising and campaign management.
Read more: Future of Sales and Marketing in 2030: physical audience of 800 + 300 virtual at hybrid event. Digital marketing / AI, location marketing. How to create MAGIC in new marketing campaigns. Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker
Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos -
Future Marketing Keynotes, Mobile,Digital Consumer
Watch entire keynote in Vilnius (October 2021) for Pardavimu Formule in Vilnius, including questions and answers.
Audience of 800 in theatre, plus 300 participating virtually (hybrid event).
Keys for all sales and marketing executives in running effective campaigns and sales programmes.
Artificial Intelligence is great for analysing data but the secret is creating MAGIC MOMENTS for customers, linked to emotion and TRUST.
How to gain true customer insight and why small things really matter in a marketing world driven by AI-linked campaigns. Why most marketing directors hate being on the receiving end of marketing, and why the future is all about smarter information and revelation.
* "How AI Will Change your life - A Futurist's Guide to a Super-Smart World" - Patrick Dixon's latest book on AI is published in September 2024 by Profile Books. It contains 38 chapters on the impact of AI across different industries, government and our wider world, including the impact of AI on marketing and building trust with customers.
Read more: Future of Marketing 2030 beyond AI. Why most companies are BLIND to customer needs. How small things create MAGIC. Audience: 800 sales and marketing execs, 300 virtually. Vilnius for Confinn. Marketing keynote speaker