Russian strategy in Ukraine under pressure. Longer term impact of military action on economy

Emerging markets will dominate global growth - where 85% of humanity lives. Economy keynote speaker

Trust is the most important thing. Future of logistics and supply chain management - keynote speaker

Future of Sales and Marketing beyond COVID - hybrid event in Vilnius: physical audience of 800 + 300 virtual. Digital marketing, location marketing. How to create MAGIC in new marketing campaigns. Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker

Chances of 2 people in 70 having same birthday? Managing Risk in Banking and Financial Services. Why the greatest risks are combinations of very unlikely events, which happen far more often than you expect. Keynote speaker on risk management

Compliance is Dead. How to build trust. Reputation of banks and financial services. Compliance Risks. Why 100% compliance with regulations, ESG requirements etc is often not enough to prevent reputational damage

Life's too short to do things you don't believe in! Why passionate belief in the true value of what you are selling or doing is the number one key to success. Secret of all leadership and marketing - keynote for 1100 people in Vilnius October 2021

Why you can't innovate on Zoom or Teams meetings - Innovation is almost impossible unless breathing same air, in same room

Why the key to rapid innovation is team diversity - survey global CEOs. Innovation keynote speaker

Future Manufacturing 5.0. Lessons from personal life for all manufacturers. Manufacturing Keynote

Future of Manufacturing: diagnostics; predictive analytics, little data and cybersecurity. Keynote

Manufacturing 5 0: The truth about robots, robotics and automation. Future of Manufacturing Keynote

Energy as a national security strategy. Added incentives to go green. Futurist view of Future of the energy industry, oil, gas, coal, solar and wind in a post-COVID world impacted by regional conflict

Energy as a national security strategy – added incentives to build a carbon zero world 


What is the outlook for the energy industry for the next decade?  I have advised many of the largest green energy companies and traditional energy companies on the future. 


In “The Future of Almost Everything” published in 2019, I warned that unstable prices would create a lot of chaos in future for energy companies, and I was right. 


Energy forecasts always have to be seen in the context of the global economy, geopolitics, technology, innovation, urbanisation, migration and social transformation. 


I wrote in 2019 that we would be likely to see unstable oil prices with all kinds of supply and demand shocks, and prices ranging from above $180 to below $40. Just so. 


And I also wrote that these price convulsions would drive many green energy companies out of business, which is what is already happening. 


Every time energy prices fluctuate wildly, investors get scared about longer term value. 

Read more: Energy as a national security strategy. Added incentives to go green. Futurist view of Future of the energy industry, oil, gas, coal, solar and wind in a post-COVID world impacted by regional conflict

 

10 steps to make your business more sustainable. Migrating from Net Zero to Carbon Zero. Keys to responsible business, CSR, going green. Sustainability keynote speaker - author of SustainAgility book - how smart innovation will help save our planet

Over the years I have advised around 400 of the world's largest 2000 companies on a wide range of future trends including sustainable businesss, green tech innovation, reducing emissions and related issues.

As I predicted in my book SustainAgility, we are now seeing a global stampede by multinationals to make their products and services more sustainable.  

Here are 10 practical steps to deliver this.

Boards are rushing to prove to media, customers, staff and shareholders that they are protecting the environment and reducing carbon emissions in a bid to strengthen their sustainability image.

But the world of sustainability is confusing, complex and controversial – with battles between different groups of green activists about how best to save our planet.

Despite all this, most global companies are changing faster than government regulation.  

This is nothing new. 

We have seen this many times before, for example in food safety, traceability and labelling, and in drastic reduction of plastic packaging.

Sustainable Business is now a huge industry in its own right

Every large consulting firm now has a rapidly growing Sustainability team, and most large companies now have teams of green tech specialists, to design sustainability strategies, track targets on energy, water use and so on.

Green tech innovation is accelerating rapidly.

Ten years ago, I wrote that that our world already had all the tools needed to tackle climate change effectively and to protect our future world. They just needed to be rolled out on a massive scale.

The truth is that the cost of most green tech innovation is falling rapidly for that reason. For example, solar cell costs fall by 10% or more with every doubling of production, and that’s without any major change in technology or design.  The same for heat pumps.

Ten Steps to Sustainable Business

Here are ten steps that any business can take towards 100% sustainability, with zero carbo emissions....

Read more: 10 steps to make your business more sustainable. Migrating from Net Zero to Carbon Zero. Keys to responsible business, CSR, going green. Sustainability keynote speaker - author of SustainAgility book - how smart innovation will help save our planet

   

Russia invasion of Ukraine - War. Russia's past is key to it's military future. War and Russian economy, Russian foreign policy and political aspirations, future relationship between Russia, China, EU, NATO and America - geopolitical risks keynote speaker

11 July 2022 note on post below:  History shows that small conflicts often trigger wider ones which is what is happening.  Hundreds of companies cancelled Russian business contracts or exited operations altogether from Russia within days and weeks of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but wider factors remain far more important from the global point of view.

On the one hand, the Russian economy was in any case smaller than Spain before the invasion, and will continue to shrink rapidly during the rest of 2022 and into 2023.  Yet on the other hand, it has a huge old-fashioned military able to create First World War type regional destruction on a massive scale - without using nuclear devices.  Sadly it can cost a mere $100,000 to blow up a 1000 year old building, but $500m to rebuild and restore (and nothing can replace the original history).

So Russia is not an economic superpower able to sustain a massive war for a long period without financial catastrophe.  Nor does Russia have the economic, military or organisational power to subdue and control 40 million angry and bitter Ukrainians. It will cost $200 billion just to rebuild blown up bridges, roads, power stations, water treatment works, schools, hospitals and homes destroyed by Russia from February to July 2022, let alone any further damage.  What this means is that all Russia is gaining so far is farmland, access to ports, and completely ruined cities, towns and villages.

The Russian economy is not an important one from the global point of view except for one single factor: energy.

After 9/11, the United States took a major policy decision to become independent of energy imports from so-called "rogue nations" which included Russia as well as much of the Middle East.  As a result, the US relaxed all kinds of restrictions which amongst other things led to a boom in gas production.  Indeed, due to fracking alone, in a six year period the proven global gas reserves of the entire world leapt from 80 to 200 years supply at current burn rates.

But Europe failed to take collective action, and instead drifted straight into today's massive gas crisis.  Germany - one of the world's largest manufacturing nations - is just one nation held to ransom by threats to turn off a gas tap completely for the long term.  And as war has continued, such threats have become realities.

Despite all this, the truth is that wars BETWEEN sovereign nations have become very rare indeed over the last 20 years.  Yes, loads of internal conflicts but traditional wars have been almost unknown.

Expect continued efforts by many nations to restore this principle that nations should not invade other nations, with great concerns that Taiwan could find itself increasingly vulnerable.

3rd March 2022 - Longer term impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

While to some, President Putin's invasion of more of Ukraine in February / March 2022 came as a shock, for many years there have been growing tensions and military operations on various borders of Russia.

President Putin's leadership has grown steadily more autocratic and imperial in tone, and increasingly hostile regarding the perceived strength of EU / NATO influence on Russia's bordering nations.

At the start of most Futurist keynote presentations I have given on global trends over the last decade, I have said that "The world can change faster than you can hold a board meeting", and the need for alternative strategies / backup plans and leadership agility. 

This of course has been proven to be true over and over again - just think of COVID (and yes I warned repeatedly about threat from new viral pandemics). In my book The Future of Almost Everything, written in 2019, I listed Wild Cards - events that could have massive impact. One was the risk of a global viral pandemic, but another was a miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict (Russia implied but not named).

As I said those words about speed of change at the start of those keynotes, I have usually showed a series of slides including one of President Putin (making the point that a single decision / misjudgment by him could have immediate, huge impacts on a wide range of industries and sectors).

In my book The Future of Almost Everything, written in 2019, I listed Wild Cards - events that could have massive impact. One was the risk of a global viral pandemic, but another was a miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict (Russia implied but not named).

Read more: Russia invasion of Ukraine - War. Russia's past is key to it's military future. War and Russian economy, Russian foreign policy and political aspirations, future relationship between Russia, China, EU, NATO and America - geopolitical risks keynote speaker

   

Future of Work - keynote speaker on workplace changes after COVID, new career aspirations, changes in workplace motivation, home working, virtual teams, portfolio workers, future of offices and flexible workplaces

Keynote Speakerfor 800 people at Confinn Event - Vilnius

Future of Work and Impact on Business. How will people want to work after COVID?  Most of my global clients need to know the Future of Work and how their teams will operate in future.  What will happen to future career choices, commuting, team meetings, office occupancy?  Will home working continue, or will too much virtual working destroy the future of the business?  What trends will we see in future business travel? Will large offices become redundant?

I've been predicting global trends for 30 years - and here's a few forecasts for future of work over the next decade...(and yes I also warned repeatedly in books, keynotes at conferences and in media broadcasts about global risks from new pandemics like COVID).

Read more: Future of Work - keynote speaker on workplace changes after COVID, new career aspirations, changes in workplace motivation, home working, virtual teams, portfolio workers, future of offices and flexible workplaces

   

The truth about Omicron and other COVID-19 variants. 10 key omicron issues. Why we must expect further viral pandemics (and many more variants of COVID-19). So what's the answer? Life Beyond COVID-19

What is the truth about Omicron?  What does Omicron mean for our world?

For over two decades before COVID-19 hit the world I warned of risks from new viral pandemics.

And since COVID-19 emerged, I warned repeatedly that we should continue to expect significant new variants to emerge, at a rate of maybe around one significant variant per 100 million new infections.  So Omicron is no surprise.

And many of my COVID forecasts have turned out to be correct - see elsewhere on this site.

Firstly, we need to see Omicron as part of a wider picture....

(Article written 1st December 2021 - World AIDS Day. AIDS is caused by HIV, just another virus that jumped unexpectedly from animals to humans, but in the case of HIV, we still have no vaccine after 35 years of trying to develop one, nor any curative treatments.  My own medical practice was overwhelmed by HIV / AIDS in 1987 which is why I have been so sensitised to risks of more pandemics.)

Read more: The truth about Omicron and other COVID-19 variants. 10 key omicron issues. Why we must expect further viral pandemics (and many more variants of COVID-19). So what's the answer? Life Beyond COVID-19

   

What is neuromarketing? Why companies are using neuromarketing to design products, packaging and marketing campaigns. How neuromarketing works. Examples of neuromarketing. Neuromarketing keynote speaker

Neuromarketing - keynote for 800 people in Vilnius, Lithuania for Pardavimu Formulae

Neuromarketing is a controversial area of market research that uses neuropsychology to study consumers' sensorimotor, cognitive, affective  and emotional responses to marketing stimuli.

There are various methods of watching the brain "think" or process stimuli, and all these are being used in hospitals to diagnose various conditions.  

These same techniques are now being used to "diagnose" marketing issues.

Neuromarketing techniques

Neuromarketing techniques include tracking eye movements, EEG (cap on head),  watching for changes in facial expressions, functional MRI brain scans (watch areas light up as different parts of the brain are more or less excited), watching pupil size.  

Neuromarketing is just an extension of all kinds of digital testing that has been going on in online marketing for years.  For example, discovering that price tags without a currency symbol are less scary to consumers than with them, and so on.

Read more: What is neuromarketing? Why companies are using neuromarketing to design products, packaging and marketing campaigns. How neuromarketing works. Examples of neuromarketing. Neuromarketing keynote speaker

   

Carbon Zero Manufacturing: how global companies will race ahead of governments to deliver net zero carbon products for a world beyond COVID. Factory strategies for Net Zero Emissions. Future of Manufacturing Keynote Speaker

Get ready for the Net Zero Manufacturing Revolution which will run faster and stronger than Manufacturing 4.0 ever did.

Expect 100,000 manufacturing innovations to reduce energy consumption, reduce embodied carbon in manufacturers products, and drive sales by proving better environmental standards.  

These changes in manufacturing will happen much faster than government regulations, just like we saw in other sectors such as food safety, food labelling, animal welfare in farming and food traceability.

Expect massive pressures up and down supply chains from larger manufacturers who will be required to report on the carbon emissions per product manufactured.

Concerns about climate emergency has increased during the COVID pandemic, and this will be a very long term change.  It was just an acceleration of year on year growing concerns.

What would it take for concern about climate emergency to turn into a global "war" against climate change?

Extract from future of manufacturing 5.0 keynote for New Mexico Advanced Manufacturing Summit.

Read more: Carbon Zero Manufacturing: how global companies will race ahead of governments to deliver net zero carbon products for a world beyond COVID. Factory strategies for Net Zero Emissions. Future of Manufacturing Keynote Speaker

   

Join me: Accenture SustainABILITY event, Lisbon, Portugal. Keynote on Sustainability and Technology

3rd November 2021, Lisbon Portugal - issues to be covered in the keynote: sustainability, transformation of business using digital technology. How technology will help find solutions to the climate emergency.

Read more: Join me: Accenture SustainABILITY event, Lisbon, Portugal. Keynote on Sustainability and Technology

   

COP26 and beyond: Climate Emergency will trigger action on wartime scale: Sustainability / ESG will dominate politics for 300 years. Green tech will radically transform life on earth, but not in time to prevent global crises / environmental catastrophes

Over 1.7 million views of my Climate Emergency Webinar and Q+A - based on my book SustainAgility

COP26 and beyond - SUSTAINABILITY WILL BE A DOMINANT ISSUE FOR NEXT 300 YEARS

Expect global responses to the climate emergency on a wartime basis - far beyond scale of any normal government measures.  What we have seen so far is NOTHING compared to what is to come.

Just look at what happened in the War against COVID. And COVID caused a generation to ask deeper questions about the future survival of humanity, about what we have done to our planet. So which will have the greatest impact? One new virus or wrecking our planet's future?

In my book SUSTAINAGILITY several years ago I warned of the dangers of inaction - and showed that we already have ALL the green tech innovations we need to provide radical answers to climate change, just by rolling out on massive scale what we have already developed.

Expect far greater concerns over the next 30 years about sustainability and what kind of planet will remain in 100 years, with shortages of water, food and other resources and major threats to other forms of life. (Written 4 April 2021 - based on many corporate keynotes given at major events on sustainability, energy use and decarbonisation.)

All the world's largest economies will unity in a common aim to protect our future planet. And in many cases, multinationals will race further ahead than government regulations, to prove their ESG credentials (Environment, Social Responsibility, Governance) to customers, shareholders media and local communities. We've seen accelerated corporate responses before in many other areas such as food safety and food labelling, animal welfare in farming, vehicle safety and so on, where companies have rapidly delivered while governments dithered.

The Construction Industry will be the front line for radical change towards zero carbon - linked to 38% of carbon emissions (building, demolishing, heating and cooling) - see below.

Expect massive catch up in America following the exit of President Trump, and fresh initiatives on massive scale to be proposed by both China and India, ramping up rapidly their own national responses over the next decade.

Read more: COP26 and beyond: Climate Emergency will trigger action on wartime scale: Sustainability / ESG will dominate politics for 300 years. Green tech will radically transform life on earth, but not in time to prevent global crises / environmental catastrophes

   

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