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11 July 2022 note on post below: History shows that small conflicts often trigger wider ones which is what is happening. Hundreds of companies cancelled Russian business contracts or exited operations altogether from Russia within days and weeks of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but wider factors remain far more important from the global point of view.
On the one hand, the Russian economy was in any case smaller than Spain before the invasion, and will continue to shrink rapidly during the rest of 2022 and into 2023. Yet on the other hand, it has a huge old-fashioned military able to create First World War type regional destruction on a massive scale - without using nuclear devices. Sadly it can cost a mere $100,000 to blow up a 1000 year old building, but $500m to rebuild and restore (and nothing can replace the original history).
So Russia is not an economic superpower able to sustain a massive war for a long period without financial catastrophe. Nor does Russia have the economic, military or organisational power to subdue and control 40 million angry and bitter Ukrainians. It will cost $200 billion just to rebuild blown up bridges, roads, power stations, water treatment works, schools, hospitals and homes destroyed by Russia from February to July 2022, let alone any further damage. What this means is that all Russia is gaining so far is farmland, access to ports, and completely ruined cities, towns and villages.
The Russian economy is not an important one from the global point of view except for one single factor: energy.
After 9/11, the United States took a major policy decision to become independent of energy imports from so-called "rogue nations" which included Russia as well as much of the Middle East. As a result, the US relaxed all kinds of restrictions which amongst other things led to a boom in gas production. Indeed, due to fracking alone, in a six year period the proven global gas reserves of the entire world leapt from 80 to 200 years supply at current burn rates.
But Europe failed to take collective action, and instead drifted straight into today's massive gas crisis. Germany - one of the world's largest manufacturing nations - is just one nation held to ransom by threats to turn off a gas tap completely for the long term. And as war has continued, such threats have become realities.
Despite all this, the truth is that wars BETWEEN sovereign nations have become very rare indeed over the last 20 years. Yes, loads of internal conflicts but traditional wars have been almost unknown.
Expect continued efforts by many nations to restore this principle that nations should not invade other nations, with great concerns that Taiwan could find itself increasingly vulnerable.
3rd March 2022 - Longer term impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
While to some, President Putin's invasion of more of Ukraine in February / March 2022 came as a shock, for many years there have been growing tensions and military operations on various borders of Russia.
President Putin's leadership has grown steadily more autocratic and imperial in tone, and increasingly hostile regarding the perceived strength of EU / NATO influence on Russia's bordering nations.
At the start of most Futurist keynote presentations I have given on global trends over the last decade, I have said that "The world can change faster than you can hold a board meeting", and the need for alternative strategies / backup plans and leadership agility.
This of course has been proven to be true over and over again - just think of COVID (and yes I warned repeatedly about threat from new viral pandemics). In my book The Future of Almost Everything, written in 2019, I listed Wild Cards - events that could have massive impact. One was the risk of a global viral pandemic, but another was a miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict (Russia implied but not named).
As I said those words about speed of change at the start of those keynotes, I have usually showed a series of slides including one of President Putin (making the point that a single decision / misjudgment by him could have immediate, huge impacts on a wide range of industries and sectors).
In my book The Future of Almost Everything, written in 2019, I listed Wild Cards - events that could have massive impact. One was the risk of a global viral pandemic, but another was a miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict (Russia implied but not named).
Read more: Russia invasion of Ukraine - War. Russia's past is key to it's military future. War and Russian economy, Russian foreign policy and political aspirations, future relationship between Russia, China, EU, NATO and America - geopolitical risks keynote speaker