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Russia invasion of Ukraine - War. Russia's past is key to it's military future. War and Russian economy, Russian foreign policy and political aspirations, future relationship between Russia, China, EU, NATO and America - geopolitical risks keynote speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Government, Politics, Activists, Democracy, War

3rd March 2022 - Longer term impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

While to some, President Putin's invasion of more of Ukraine in February / March 2022 came as a shock, for many years there have been growing tensions and military operations on various borders of Russia.

President Putin's leadership has grown steadily more autocratic and imperial in tone, and increasingly hostile regarding the perceived strength of EU / NATO influence on Russia's bordering nations.

At the start of most Futurist keynote presentations I have given on global trends over the last decade, I have said that "The world can change faster than you can hold a board meeting", and the need for alternative strategies / backup plans and leadership agility. 

This of course has been proven to be true over and over again - just think of COVID (and yes I warned repeatedly about threat from new viral pandemics). In my book The Future of Almost Everything, written in 2019, I listed Wild Cards - events that could have massive impact. One was the risk of a global viral pandemic, but another was a miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict (Russia implied but not named).

As I said those words about speed of change at the start of those keynotes, I have usually showed a series of slides including one of President Putin (making the point that a single decision / misjudgment by him could have immediate, huge impacts on a wide range of industries and sectors).

In my book The Future of Almost Everything, written in 2019, I listed Wild Cards - events that could have massive impact. One was the risk of a global viral pandemic, but another was a miscalculation by a powerful nation leading to sustained regional conflict (Russia implied but not named).

So Russia going to war into Ukraine should not be much of a surprise, taking yet more territory in another country, today Ukraine, but several other smaller neighbouring nations now more vulnerable to military attack.  

I have travelled extensively across the region, visiting both Russia and Ukraine many times, with many friends in both nations.

What is happening will be immensely distressing to many millions of people in Russia, who also have strong Ukrainian ties.  Here is a longer term perspective on what next.

The result of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine will be

- Huge immediate efforts by Ukraine allies to provide "hidden" military assistance by whatever means - eg weapons across whatever borders remain open (see Future of War article on hybrid conflicts)

- Rapid ramping up of military spending by all NATO nations, for longer term (which will feed further insecurities in President Putin and his senior leaders)

- Major challenges for Russia in imposing its will on the Ukrainian people who have a strong independent spirit (apart from coal mining regions to East which are strongly pro-Russian in culture)

- Issues of low morale amongst ordinary Russian soldiers, many of which have no interest in dying in Ukraine or in dominating it's people

- Constant leakage into global media of distressing video footage which is highly negative to Russia, taken on mobile phones and smuggled across borders even when entire phone networks and internet down - also reaching millions of Russian citizens despite government efforts to prevent this

- United efforts globally to damage the Russian economy and to take punitive action against political and business leaders

- Weakened Russian economy as result of all the above

- Further cycle of military investment by Russia - diverting resources from health, education, infrastructure etc

- Increased global carbon energy prices - which will also encourage investment in green energy, especially in Europe

- Political and social isolation / contempt of Russia on world stage

- A precedent that if successful may encourage military moves elsewhere eg China into Taiwan

And that's just the start.

Unfortunately, the Gulf War set a very dangerous precedent.

The aim to remove Sadam Hussain due to perceived threats of weapons of mass destruction, was an invasion with limited geopolitical justification.  The US and UK invaded another nation. 

Same with Afghanistan.  In both cases regime change was the immediate goal - sounds similar to Russian stated objectives in March 2022 re war on Ukraine.

NATO war games often have depressing outcomes

NATO generals play war games (as Russian generals do with each other) on a fairly constant basis, mapping out what responses would be possible in various scenarios.

But all such war games are at risk of Group Think - too many generals from one nation or alliance playing with each other for example, without wider input, can risk major errors of judgement.

The issue has always been, since the Cold War began, that huge numbers of Russian tanks pouring across a border to the West would be impossible to stop with traditional hardware, which is why NATO invested such large amounts in tactical nuclear devices.

But if NATO takes the position (or more dangerously Russia assumes this is the case anyway) that nuclear response will be ruled out, then President Putin / Russia can effectively invade whatever bordering nations it wishes, so long as willing to put up with the daily costs of imposing rule over angry, outraged populations.

Russia also has many more tactical nuclear weapons which are more useful in local battles.

Wider context of Russian invasion of Ukraine

President Putin's support for Belarus in quelling major unrest following re-election of it's own President, was part of wider long term Russia foreign policy across the region leading up to the 2022 Russian war with Ukraine.

Plus previous seizure of Crimeria, previously part of Ukraine, support for a sustained and bloody hybrid conflict in Eastern Ukraine, plus taking territory in Georgia and so on, plus clamping down on political opposition as well as independent news reporting agencies.

The fact is that President Putin's decision-making has posed a major geopolitical threat to the region for a long time now, and will continue to do so.

Sense of Perspective - Russia has small economy and Ukraine a large population 

However, to keep a sense of perspective, the entire Russian economy BEFORE SANCTIONS and the collapse of the Rouble, was similar in size to Spain or Italy.  And Ukraine itself has 40 million people (Russia 140 million).

Russia is also heavily dependent on oil and gas sales to other nations - 17% of global gas production and 12% of global oil output and is the largest net exporter of oil and gas combined.  Natural resources contribute around 60% to GDP. 

Can you imagine Spain going to war against France - the economic impact.  Or Greece invading Turkey?  Consider the tax increases required to fund huge armies, Air Force etc - the cost of firing a single cruise missile, of losing a single fighter jet.

Russia really is a tiny economy compared to the US or China.  Russia is not an economic superpower, yet has an identity and ambition for global greatness.  

Fighting wars in the third millennium is extremely expensive. You can use cruise missiles and artillery and conventional bombing to destroy infrastructure and terrorise entire populations, but actual occupation is another matter altogether.

Occupying another nation always ends in failure and humiliation

Occupation is a risky undertaking for any nation invading another - as it almost always creates resentment, outrage, hatred.  History shows us that all military occupations fail eventually.

How would Russia subdue and rule over 40 million people in Ukraine, the vast majority preferring to be independent of Russia?  

So if Russia does seize the entire territory, which it has the military power to do, remaining as a military presence will be a massive drain on resources.

And Ukraine is not a wealthy nation which can be asset stripped to fund such Russian imperialism.

Ordinary Russian people aspire to Western lifestyles, and Moscow is a cosmopolitan, lively and dynamic city.  A major downturn in economy will be hard to justify to the population if perceived to be the result of intemperate military adventurism. 

Gas addiction is the great weakness of Western Europe - expect change 

The great weakness of Western Europe continues to be its addiction to Russian gas.  Expect even faster migration towards low carbon economies with rapid expansion of gas trade with other nations such as the United States.

You can read below what I wrote about the longer term future of Russia in The Future of Almost Everything, published / updated in 2019.  A core message of the book, and of many other future-related books I have written, is this:

The world continues to turn through many a crisis - with our longer term future shaped by megatrends which are more powerful than decisions of government leaders or even global events such as viral pandemics.  

Just one such megatrend is the relentless, year on year rise of emerging markets in economic strength and influence.  Another is the relentless, year on year rise in concerns about future sustainability of our planet.  

Read more: Russia invasion of Ukraine - War. Russia's past is key to it's military future. War and Russian economy, Russian foreign policy and political aspirations, future relationship between Russia, China, EU, NATO and America - geopolitical risks keynote speaker

Future of Work - keynote speaker on workplace changes after COVID, new career aspirations, changes in workplace motivation, home working, virtual teams, portfolio workers, future of offices and flexible workplaces

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future of Work, Workplace and HR - Keynotes

Keynote Speakerfor 800 people at Confinn Event - Vilnius

Future of Work and Impact on Business. How will people want to work after COVID?  Most of my global clients need to know the Future of Work and how their teams will operate in future.  What will happen to future career choices, commuting, team meetings, office occupancy?  Will home working continue, or will too much virtual working destroy the future of the business?  What trends will we see in future business travel? Will large offices become redundant?

I've been predicting global trends for 30 years - and here's a few forecasts for future of work over the next decade...(and yes I also warned repeatedly in books, keynotes at conferences and in media broadcasts about global risks from new pandemics like COVID).

Read more: Future of Work - keynote speaker on workplace changes after COVID, new career aspirations, changes in workplace motivation, home working, virtual teams, portfolio workers, future of offices and flexible workplaces

The truth about Omicron and other COVID-19 variants. 10 key omicron issues. Why we must expect further viral pandemics (and many more variants of COVID-19). So what's the answer? Life Beyond COVID-19

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future Health Care and Pharma Keynote Speaker

What is the truth about Omicron?  What does Omicron mean for our world?

For over two decades before COVID-19 hit the world I warned of risks from new viral pandemics.

And since COVID-19 emerged, I warned repeatedly that we should continue to expect significant new variants to emerge, at a rate of maybe around one significant variant per 100 million new infections.  So Omicron is no surprise.

And many of my COVID forecasts have turned out to be correct - see elsewhere on this site.

Firstly, we need to see Omicron as part of a wider picture....

(Article written 1st December 2021 - World AIDS Day. AIDS is caused by HIV, just another virus that jumped unexpectedly from animals to humans, but in the case of HIV, we still have no vaccine after 35 years of trying to develop one, nor any curative treatments.  My own medical practice was overwhelmed by HIV / AIDS in 1987 which is why I have been so sensitised to risks of more pandemics.)

Read more: The truth about Omicron and other COVID-19 variants. 10 key omicron issues. Why we must expect further viral pandemics (and many more variants of COVID-19). So what's the answer? Life Beyond COVID-19

What is neuromarketing? Why companies are using neuromarketing to design products, packaging and marketing campaigns. How neuromarketing works. Examples of neuromarketing. Neuromarketing keynote speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future Marketing Keynotes, Mobile,Digital Consumer

Neuromarketing - keynote for 800 people in Vilnius, Lithuania for Pardavimu Formulae

Neuromarketing is a controversial area of market research that uses neuropsychology to study consumers' sensorimotor, cognitive, affective  and emotional responses to marketing stimuli.

There are various methods of watching the brain "think" or process stimuli, and all these are being used in hospitals to diagnose various conditions.  

These same techniques are now being used to "diagnose" marketing issues.

Neuromarketing techniques

Neuromarketing techniques include tracking eye movements, EEG (cap on head),  watching for changes in facial expressions, functional MRI brain scans (watch areas light up as different parts of the brain are more or less excited), watching pupil size.  

Neuromarketing is just an extension of all kinds of digital testing that has been going on in online marketing for years.  For example, discovering that price tags without a currency symbol are less scary to consumers than with them, and so on.

Read more: What is neuromarketing? Why companies are using neuromarketing to design products, packaging and marketing campaigns. How neuromarketing works. Examples of neuromarketing. Neuromarketing keynote speaker

Carbon Zero Manufacturing: how global companies will race ahead of governments to deliver net zero carbon products. Factory strategies for Net Zero Emissions. Future of Manufacturing Keynote Speaker

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Manufacturing, Logistics, Supply Chain Keynotes

Get ready for the Net Zero Manufacturing Revolution which will run faster and stronger than Manufacturing 4.0 ever did.

Expect 100,000 manufacturing innovations to reduce energy consumption, reduce embodied carbon in manufacturers products, and drive sales by proving better environmental standards.  

These changes in manufacturing will happen much faster than government regulations, just like we saw in other sectors such as food safety, food labelling, animal welfare in farming and food traceability.

Expect massive pressures up and down supply chains from larger manufacturers who will be required to report on the carbon emissions per product manufactured.

Concerns about climate emergency has increased during the COVID pandemic, and this will be a very long term change.  It was just an acceleration of year on year growing concerns.

What would it take for concern about climate emergency to turn into a global "war" against climate change?

Extract from future of manufacturing 5.0 keynote for New Mexico Advanced Manufacturing Summit.

Read more: Carbon Zero Manufacturing: how global companies will race ahead of governments to deliver net zero carbon products. Factory strategies for Net Zero Emissions. Future of Manufacturing Keynote Speaker

Join me: Accenture SustainABILITY event, Lisbon, Portugal. Keynote on Sustainability and Technology

Dr Patrick Dixon, YouTube Futurist Keynote Speaker - Recent Futurist YouTube Videos - Keynote Speaker

3rd November 2021, Lisbon Portugal - issues to be covered in the keynote: sustainability, transformation of business using digital technology. How technology will help find solutions to the climate emergency.

Read more: Join me: Accenture SustainABILITY event, Lisbon, Portugal. Keynote on Sustainability and Technology

COP26 and beyond: Climate Emergency will trigger action on wartime scale: Sustainability / ESG will dominate politics for 300 years. Green tech will radically transform life on earth, but not in time to prevent global crises / environmental catastrophes

Futurist Keynote Speaker: Posts, Slides, Videos - Future GreenTech, Sustainability Keynote Speaker

Over 1.7 million views of my Climate Emergency Webinar and Q+A - based on my book SustainAgility

COP26 and beyond - SUSTAINABILITY WILL BE A DOMINANT ISSUE FOR NEXT 300 YEARS

Expect global responses to the climate emergency on a wartime basis - far beyond scale of any normal government measures.  What we have seen so far is NOTHING compared to what is to come.

Just look at what happened in the War against COVID. And COVID caused a generation to ask deeper questions about the future survival of humanity, about what we have done to our planet. So which will have the greatest impact? One new virus or wrecking our planet's future?

In my book SUSTAINAGILITY several years ago I warned of the dangers of inaction - and showed that we already have ALL the green tech innovations we need to provide radical answers to climate change, just by rolling out on massive scale what we have already developed.

Expect far greater concerns over the next 30 years about sustainability and what kind of planet will remain in 100 years, with shortages of water, food and other resources and major threats to other forms of life. (Written 4 April 2021 - based on many corporate keynotes given at major events on sustainability, energy use and decarbonisation.)

All the world's largest economies will unity in a common aim to protect our future planet. And in many cases, multinationals will race further ahead than government regulations, to prove their ESG credentials (Environment, Social Responsibility, Governance) to customers, shareholders media and local communities. We've seen accelerated corporate responses before in many other areas such as food safety and food labelling, animal welfare in farming, vehicle safety and so on, where companies have rapidly delivered while governments dithered.

The Construction Industry will be the front line for radical change towards zero carbon - linked to 38% of carbon emissions (building, demolishing, heating and cooling) - see below.

Expect massive catch up in America following the exit of President Trump, and fresh initiatives on massive scale to be proposed by both China and India, ramping up rapidly their own national responses over the next decade.

Read more: COP26 and beyond: Climate Emergency will trigger action on wartime scale: Sustainability / ESG will dominate politics for 300 years. Green tech will radically transform life on earth, but not in time to prevent global crises / environmental catastrophes

Future of Sales and Marketing beyond COVID - hybrid event in Vilnius: physical audience of 800 + 300 virtual. Digital marketing, location marketing. How to create MAGIC in new marketing campaigns. Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker

Dr Patrick Dixon, YouTube Futurist Keynote Speaker - Recent Futurist YouTube Videos - Keynote Speaker

Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker - Patrick Dixon - speaking in Vilnius, Lithuania at Confinn. See https://www.confinn.eu. The future of marketing is about INFORMATION and REVELATION. Why most marketing directors hate marketing - being on the receiving end. Why market research cannot tell you the future and why many companies are blind to what their customers really want and need. Keys to successful personalised marketing and location-based marketing, with industry examples in retail of marketing campaigns that really worked well. How COVID has changed retail customer expectations and behaviour.

Read more: Future of Sales and Marketing beyond COVID - hybrid event in Vilnius: physical audience of 800 + 300 virtual. Digital marketing, location marketing. How to create MAGIC in new marketing campaigns. Future of Marketing Keynote Speaker