| Safe Growth in Uncertain Times - plus video
What happens after you press the
global RESET button (written 2001)
Sept 11 2001 was like pressing the
computer RESET button. As if someone
turned off the whole economy for a microsecond, followed by a flash
and a pause. Yet now the reloading is complete, it's becoming clear
the whole system is working in a different way, with early indications
of the greatest shift in values we have seen for over 50 years.
(Comments written November 2001)
ECONOMY
GROWTH SPURT: Many industries will soon be sharp, lean and fit, with
fewer competitive worries, looser labour market, and major new business
opportunities - after the recent clear-out of weak companies, poor
projects and inefficient teams. Coupled with a period when consumers have quietly repaid
debt, new borrowing costs have remained low, and government expenditure
has risen, corporate life will look more solid than for almost two
years by early 2003. Managers need to get ready for sharp increases
in growth with catch-up in new investment, especially in digital
technology and telecom. Companies
will need to innovate and respond to market changes even faster,
using scenario planning to develop strategies ahead of unknown events,
in order to survive further continuous rapid change. But this will
be no ordinary recovery. Our
world is changing far too profoundly for that.
GLOBALISATION
v TRIBALISM - The Struggle Continues: The rest of this decade will be dominated by two finely balanced
but opposing forces, globalisation and tribalism. Each is a reaction to the other and the greatest challenge
for peaceful trade and co-existence in the early third millennium
will be to hold the two in creative tension together. The digital economy created the global village and globalisation
the rules for trading within it, but neither gave guidance on how
to make 6 billion people comfortable together when shoe-horned into
that cramped, virtual space. The culture conflicts have been shocking - TV images of Afghan
women in Burkas appearing in New York topless bars, or explicit European sex scenes beamed into primitive Istanbul
dwellings, and watched unexpectedly by young Muslim children. Corporations should expect the War Against Terror to result
in an accelerated drive towards global governance and co-operation,
and a new language for sensitive global citizenship and corporate
responsibility, in a bid to reduce global tensions and undermine
support for violent protest.
DIGITAL
TECHNOLOGY - THE NEXT WAVE:
Forget the "net" - a last-century idea of connected computers
- and embrace the next wave: everything talking to everything, everywhere, all the time,
mostly wireless but including brain to chip and the other way round.
Dot com hype and bust cannot ignore the continued exponential rise
in global consumer use of digital technology to choose products,
and buy. Next generation
"killer" applications will be Person to Person - as with e-mail
and SMS. The future
is relationships and belonging. That's why mobile video-links will be every teenager's must-have
as soon as price and quality are right. For business the greatest management techno-challenge
will be to make top to bottom single-click business work, where
thousands of links in a chain are activated the moment a new order
is placed, saving costs, delivering better solutions faster. The greatest people-challenge for larger corporations
will be using new technology to develop radically different global
management methods, with fewer hours on planes and far greater efficiency.
BIOTECH
PROMISE AND PROBLEMS: Genetics will drive many spectacular breakthroughs in medical
treatment, as well as in manufacturing and food production, while
posing the greatest moral dilemmas the human race has ever faced. Digital technology changes what we do - biotech changes
who we are. Bizarre and sometimes highly dangerous gene experiments by
eccentric scientists will result in global unease, protests and
in some places, rejection of biotech altogether. Likewise, abuse of genetics by wealthy people looking for
super-babies and clones will overshadow remarkable much-needed new
treatments for illnesses such as diabetes, cancer, heart disease
and stroke. GM crops will promise huge gains in food production for
the poorest nations, while provoking environmental protests at the
same time.
LEADING
THE NEW VALUES REVOLUTION: Linked to all this, fundamental attitude changes are about
to sweep through society, more powerful than internet, biotech and
globalisation combined. Accelerated dramatically by recent events,
chaos and uncertainty, with huge future impact on all leadership
in business and personal life. A century of science, medicine and
technology did improve our lives yet left us time-hungry, seeking
greater work-life balance and meaning. Deep issues remained untouched
in our families and neighbourhoods and in our global village. This profound value shift will affect what people want from
a job and what they will tolerate, the products they buy, the choices
they make, and business they approve of. Work place motivation is
already totally changing. Huge numbers of calibre executives are
opting out of high-pressure jobs to "get a life". This is just a
symptom of the underlying rethink about what the future may bring
and what is important in life. Companies will rise and fall on single
issues and media reports. Great companies means having great values. Expect huge investment
in this area, as companies seek to take the moral high ground, going
even further than their consumers and markets currently demand.
The greatest
value-challenge for every leader and every corporation will
be demonstrating real commitment to building a better world
- for everyone, whether for consumer, worker or client, their families,
community, nation or the greater humanity. "Building a Better World"
is the ultimate slogan and mission statement. It's also the heart of every successful leader's message
throughout history. You'll attract the best people, form highly
motivated teams, sell the strongest brands with greatest purpose
and highest values, promising all a better future.
Future of investment banking and relationship management - 2006 lecture
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