| The
Future of Europe
The Future of the European Union
See also presentation
on the future of Europe - impact of joining for 10 accession
countries - UNIDO speech by Dr Dixon to cabinet ministers and
government officials from 11 existing and future EU nations. Dixon has been ranked as one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers50 2005 survey)
Try to imagine what historians will write about Europe
in the year 2100.
Did integration succeeed in preventing a Third World War - as
was the hope of the founders of the European Union? How stable was
the Union after expansion to include many former Eastern bloc nations?
What was the outcome of major showdowns between The Federal States
of Europe and America through 2020-2030? How did the Union cope
with massive influx of foreign nationals? What happened to national
parliaments, laws, markets, languages and cultures?
Major challenges to the future of Europe lie ahead.
If the great experiment succeeds, it will create an economic, political
and military force to pose real challenges to the United States,
with its enlargement to 25 countries and a population approaching
500 million. Expansion will add 23% to the EU's land area and bring
in 75 million additional citizens, with a combined economy of $9.3
trillion, approaching that of the U.S.
The Future of Europe will be costly
Expansion is a costly business: EU subsidies to the
Eastern countries will be $40 billion between 2004 and 2006, a large
slice of the annual $97 billion Brussels budget. And that is unlikely
to scratch the surface. Anyone following the decline of Germany's
economy cannot fail to recognise the immense investment of resources
by old West Germany into the East, for little economic return.
Just visit smaller towns and cities in places like Slovakia or the
Czech Republic, dominated still by Stalin-influenced mass-housing
projects and decaying ex-communist infrastructure. Many of those
75 million new Euro citizens are existing on average incomes of
no more than $450 a month, yet will have an expectation of the same
kinds of economic and social rights that those in France, Germany
and Britain take for granted. They will also find themselves bound
by tens of thousands of EU directives, such as rules on food preparation
and hygiene in restaurants, which will be impossibly expensive to
implement without help.
Deutsche Bank studies of GDP growth, productivity
and other factors suggest it will take Slovenia, the most developed
country, up to a decade to catch up with the EU average. The problem
is most acute for Poland, the largest country in the new group,
with a population of 39 million. The economy ground to a halt in
2002 with unemployment of 17% in early 2003. At current rates it
could take 40 years for Poland to reach average EU living standards.
Tensions may grow if workers in the West feel their
jobs are not only moving East, but also their own tax money, which
is being used to rebuild nations they care little about.
If the EU continues as planned, a Greater Europe will rebalance
unequal power struggles on the world stage, currently dominated
by America even though America is consistently out-voted on many
issues. But if the European experiment fails, it will disintegrate
eventually into conflict and chaos.
The Most Likely Future for Europe
The most likely scenario for the future of the EU
over the next decade and a half will be slow but steady progress
towards integration, held back by the rich diversity of cultures
and economic situations. A Greater Europe cannot be built without
strong EU governance and visionary leadership, yet these are the
two issues which are notably missing at present.
The European Parliament does not command the same
sense of respect as national Parliaments, nor the connection with
ordinary people. This is a serious problem. Who makes decisions
in Europe anyway? Is it EU councils of Ministers who are appointed
by their own governments? Is it elected representatives of the people
(MEPs)? And that is the heart of the problem.
The Future of Europe: Challenge of Tribalism
Culture differences
are profound and deeply sensitive. Take language for example. In
France there is great resentment about the dominance of the English
language and it is illegal to play too many English songs on the
radio. It is hard to imagine such a profound division between different
States of America.
Passions of large numbers of people within the EU
can be easily inflamed by insensitive decrees from Brussels, or
by "unfair" treatment by one country of another. Disputes
over beef, lamb, asylum seekers, chocolate, Iraq and so on are not
just superficial. They often hide very long, historical issues and
profound resentments. Finding a way through will mean finding a
common EU voice, a clear moral lead from a commanding EU figurehead
who will bring confidence and clarity. The current system of a 6
monthly rotating leader is unsustainable, confusing, destabilising
and makes effective leadership impossible.
The Future of Europe: Challenge of Rapid Enlargement
The European model is changing forever with rapid
expansion to the East, doubling the number of countries and embracing
nations that are extremely poor in comparison. Governance will be
complex (we don't even have an elected President), and so will be
the culture mix. Face
the facts: ethnic cleansing is a daily reality in Europe - even
in the UK. Every night somewhere in Belfast we see sectarian attacks
and every morning the removal vans arrive to take another family
away to another location. It is the same in Bosnia, and Kosovo,
both part of old Yugoslavia, yet another part of the same old nation
is entering the EU: Slovenia. So here we have nations rushing to
become one, who cannot even stop people in the same street butchering
each other because they want to be so different. So expect growth,
extension, vast economic trading areas, and with it growing tensions,
xenophobia and resentment.
See
THE FUTURE OF EUROPE - WIDER CONTEXT
See also presentation
on the future of Europe - impact of joining for 10 accession
countries - UNIDO speech by Dr Dixon to cabinet ministers
and government officials from 11 existing and future EU nations
The Future of Outsourcing
Business processing outsourcing, call centre, IT, offshore HR services, customer support, legal and accounting. Truth about outsourcing impact on emerging economies, US and Europe. Benefits and risks.
Press
/ TV | Lectures | Dr
Patrick Dixon | Future of Banking | Digital Consumers
,
Genetics and Cloning | Life
& Health | Global Change
| Search our site |
