| Future
of Telecom and Future of Broadband
Broadband will change society at every
level
Broadband biggest telecom techno-jump since launch of personal computers
Press release at launch of BT Openworld 14 October 2000 in London
- keynote speech - see slides (ppt4) on The
Future of Telecom / Broadband.
"Broadband access to the net down old
copper wires is the biggest telecom techno-jump since the creation
of the personal computer and will totally change people's lives,"
said Dr Patrick Dixon, Europe's leading futurist, Director
of Global Change Ltd and author of Futurewise and keynote speaker
at the BT Openworld event.
"Broadband means I am connected to
every computer in the world at speeds approaching that on my own
area network. That means for the first time since the
creation of the PC we are seeing the power of the desktop, portable
or handheld device approach that of the largest supercomputers globally.
Until now the net power advantage was largely theoretical because
too slow for anything other than web pages and a few downloads.
"Broadband is a real threat to cable companies.
Forget cable. Who needs cable when a pair of old copper wires can be turned
in minutes into a big fat internet connection, as powerful as that
used by many medium to large businesses today?
Cable companies have been terribly slow to offer broadband
and will now suffer.
"Computer speed doubles every 18 months which we think is fast -
but broadband means up to a 40-fold jump
in phone capacity after an engineer visit of less than two
hours. All net calls
are free.
"For an astonishingly low monthly flat rate I am permanently connected
at ten times normal speed.
NO more "world wide wait" - the net is now blisteringly fast.
Downloads that took over an hour, with many broken connections,
now take just a few seconds. Two years ago a leased line would have cost me thousands a
year - but BT Openworld costs little more than a couple of CDs a
month.
"Most people will struggle to use even
a fraction of the mega-power that BT Openworld offers, but could
get back all their money and more on phone call savings, and time
savings if they use the net a lot.
"Broadband means a one hour voice call
to Australia or America or India for free - and surfing the
net at the same time, and being able to receive another conventional
phone call from someone else.
For £50 each you can add cameras both ends.
Think about it - celebrating Christmas together across the
world. It costs you nothing to be linked for a minute, a day or
for ten whole days.
"Broadband means teleworking at home with
ultra-fast access to your own office network, permanent video-links
between different teleworkers, virtual teams, virtual offices and
virtual organisations - at almost zero cost, using existing
phone lines and computers.
"Broadband means more than just web pages,
with instant access to over 200,000 Web TV stations, all offering
video on demand. Hundreds
of free feature films can already be watched at the touch of a button.
"Of course this is early days and we've quite a way to go until
the quality of broadband video on broadband reaches broadcast standard.
But the next generation is coming soon.
"Expect thousands of new creative ideas about how to use all this
huge capacity in the home and at work.
For example, at
any time of the day or night anyone who calls me on an ordinary
phone can also log onto my website and see me - on one of five cameras
in my home. Why not?
It costs me nothing to run it all the time whether I am in
or out. And if I'm
out, it becomes part of the security system.
"One company is already offering free unlimited calls to any US
telephone from any PC online.
No catch. No
money.
"That's one reason why the rapid takeoff of BT Openworld is a real
threat to all traditional telecom companies. The days of charging
voice or data calls by time are numbered. The days of charging calls
by distance are also rapidly coming to an end.
"The same is happening in other industries - for example banks are
also cannibalising their own businesses every time they introduce
new technology. Only
the fastest movers will survive.
Phone companies will be
forced to completely reinvent their business models - and broadband
will speed the revolution even further
"In the meantime, expect demand for broadband
to be huge and potentially overwhelming. Broadband will be a must-have for every medium-sized business
and every home-worker who is computer-based.
 |
Dr Patrick Dixon
is an international lecturer on Global Trends, a regular
presenter
at business schools and an advisor to the boards and
senior teams of many multinational companies. See full bio. |
|
His Web TV station
had 24 million requests in 12 months.
|
|
Described as
a "global change guru" by the Wall Street Journal, he has
been featured recently in over 150 radio and TV broadcasts
includingBBCC TV, ITN, Newsnight, CNN, CNBN and has written
for Time Magazine. See full
list. |
|
Interviews:
00 44 (0) 7768 511 390 |
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